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Prediction for CME (2026-08-03T12:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-03T12:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47943/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption on the south central disk centered around S35W05. The filament in SDO AIA 304 begins to lift as early as approx. 2026-08-03T03:00Z, erupting and dissippating from approx. 2026-08-03T07:00Z to 2026-08-03T12:00Z, with brightening on-disk. Also observed in SDO AIA 193 as a wide swath of dimming starting approx. 2026-08-03T10:00Z which migrates southeastward for several hours covering a large area of the south-central disk. Also observed as the filament, field line movement, dimming, and brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 at 2026-08-03T07:55Z and 2026-08-03T08:15Z respectively. | Preliminarily closed out as non-arrival, investigating possible arrival around 2026-08-08T05:54Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-07T16:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 93.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-08-03T18:55Z
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